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Marvell Tech MRVL seems to have impressed with earnings after the bell. The 200mva is $20, which it is blowing by after hours.

If the rally can hold 1 hour into tomorrow, $23 a share will be no problem.

Brocade seems to have delivered after the bell, stock is making new 2 year high, yet still under $10 a share.

These stocks build a nice case for one of top ranked tech stocks into tomorrow.

Another feature we are adding for subscribers is a long portfolio with the goal of gaining 12-15% return per trade, being long no more than 5 stocks at a time.

Two stocks that would be a good example of the stocks we will be long are FORM and ITRI. You can read my previous blogs on these to find out why.

We will have specific entry and sell targets for the portfolio.

For those who cant trade daily or be available to Swing Trade, this will be a nice way to play specific stocks from the focus list, that present a favorable chance to gain 12% or more, if held a little longer.--Jon

For a limited time, Jon Anthony will be offering his Target Price Trades at no charge!

These are the stocks from our focus list with trade ranks of 7 or higher

--Jon

Since April 2006, shares of FORM have made 6 attempts to move past and hold $45 a share. In the Electronic Semi Equip space, IBD ranks FORM number #1 in fundamentals. Even ahead of VSEA and WFR, our other two favorite Semi stocks we trade.

Average Analyst price target for the stock is $50.00, five dollars below current level. This is important because you can usually look for analyst to downgrade stocks, once they reach their price targets.

The Company will be presenting to Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley on Feb 28th. This might be enough to finally get this stock to break out the next two weeks, giving us a fast money return of 15%!—Jon

The case against stocks is slowly being made.

The pressure on the US dollar could continue to rise as we head into the busy data week. This week we get durable goods, consumer confidence, existing and new home sales, preliminary fourth quarter GDP, Chicago PMI, personal income and manufacturing sector ISM.

Also at risk is downward revisions in GDP due to downward revisions to non-residential and business investment.

We never stop trading. We just need to stay informed so we are aware of the type of market environment we are trading in. Trading is the same as playing poker or blackjack, when you got a good hand, you double down, when your hand is not so good, you bet small and fold quickly—Jon

Once again, bad weather is moving across the country and gas prices at the pump are rising. With Oil holding above $60 a barrel, seems like this is a good area we should be in.

At the Trademechanic we try to avoid excessive volatility because it’s playing with fire. Oil has just been too volatile, moving higher and lower almost every day without clear direction, ultimately resolving up.

I must admit however, there is an obvious play that is more stable I have missed the last few weeks, for that I apologize. Here is a headline from this week, “Ahead of the Bell: Renewable Energy Wednesday February 21, 6:27 am ET
Piper Jaffray to Hold Alternative Energy Conference in New York.”

If you read Peter Lynch’s “One up on Wall Street”, in there he will tell you he missed way more good investments then he got right. Well alternative energy stocks are HOT and I have missed them the last few weeks.

There is nothing I hate more as a trader than to miss easy money trades. You should live for “easy money” trades, not high action, hard to game, go for the big win, type plays.

Watch for some of these plays next week on our focus portfolio, solar, coal, hydro, natural resources, etc.—Jon

Shares of DRIV were upgraded last night by Oppenheimer, raising price target to $64. If stock can clear $58.55 today, this will be a new 5 day price high, providing you a real shot to lock in at least .50cents a share gain.

Pivot point is 57.82, look for initial support at this level if the stock moves lower this morning. Resistance levels above 5 day high are $58.95 and $59.72.—Jon

Here is yesterdays headline, “Dow Ends Down 48 on Inflation Concerns Wednesday February 21, 8:14 pm ET”. Inflation takes a while to set in and work its way through the economy. So, if we were so worried about inflation yesterday, why are the futures pointing to an up market today?

Traders should take in all information and bounce that against their own internal scans and timing indicators. For example, what I see is every dip in the market is quickly being bought. This directly contradicts the headline above.

However, my indicators clearly show we are at a point where historically we sell off. I would expect the market to begin to focus on the negative, instead of seeing things as a positive over the next few weeks.

You can bet other Wall Street pros are seeing the same thing, and will begin to protect profits.

Of course the press will tell you it’s the Fed, its inflation, its what ever.

If you traded only when there is nothing to fear, you probably could make more money in a savings account.

Learn what to look for, and stick with that. Emotion is a money loser.—Jon

Two snaps to the person whom was lucky enough, or maybe luck didn’t have anything to do with it, that snapped up a big block of CMG shares today around 2pm. Worked out well for them as the CEO was on Jim Cramers Mad Money tonight, which seems to have moved the shares over $1.50 after hours.

I wish Jim would give us a call before he pumps a stock we are trying to get long. I think a little Efficient Market Theory might be in play here.

None the less, Jim Cramer has effectively taken us out of our trade of the week, and I am not very happy about it.

If you can get the shares between $63.75 and $64 on the upswing, then all in. Otherwise, don’t chase the shares tomorrow. -Jon

I love a stock that plays hard to get, don’t you! CMG finally found the volume spike I have been looking for today at $63.

It’s funny at the beginning of the week I was looking to make fast money early, in case we need to sell. As said here many times before, the stock market is the boss, and she had other plans.

None the less, CMG remains a screaming mathematical buy, and I hope will provide us with some nice gain before the market close on Friday.

The restaurant stocks have moved higher all week, but this one had to digest last Fridays $3.00 up move.

Will be looking to take down CMG again tomorrow above $63.75. If it can break above $65, easy sailing to $69.—Jon

Looks like this morning we are seeing a lack of buyers, not a bunch of sellers, yet. Its important as a trader you learn the difference between the two. If we see volume pickup and the average continue to move lower, then this week for the bulls is in doubt.

Mathematically, YHOO and CMG set up perfect and today's early morning downside is within the acceptable range. If these levels hold, it is a very nice set up for us to make good money this week.

This mornings actions is proof why as traders we don’t buy at market, rather we use stop limits when entering stocks.

You want to be in the drivers seat at all times if possible.--Jon

“Sirius plans to buy XM in $4.6 billion stock deal” so the headline reads.

Cruising the message boards I read a lot of folks on there that are calling themselves “experts” and “pros” making predictions of how much money they are going to make tomorrow on this deal. Predictions are for XM to hit $18-20 tomorrow, and SIRI moving north of $5.

This trader for one is not buying these bold predictions and more than that, thinks this deal will never be approved. I think both of these CEOs know that it wont go through, and are trying to save face with investors before their stocks go to zero value and the lawsuits start to fly.

My advice if you are trying to game this for a trade, look elsewhere. Don’t be trapped into buying what might look like easy money, when these shares don’t go to the price targets tomorrow morning, that everyone is claiming.

Too many true “pro” Wall Street sharks in this water.--Jon

Wow, housing down 14%! That is scary, and also puts the possibility of a fed rate cut back on the table.

Short term, this is a positive for stocks.--Jon

Today things are 50/50 at best for which way the market will move. As traders, these are not odds we are comfortable with.

The numbers we got yesterday on Industrial Production and Housing prices, for me at least put the possibility of a recession back on the table. Today we get more housing data that the market is watching.

We need to be fast with the sell button today. Lets see what the housing number is, and more important the way the futures react to the number.

Today is options expiration and my feeling is more traders need to take stocks down verses up, to be in the money. If the futures don’t react favorably, we are gone on the open in shares of VSEA and GYI. Holding PHI into the close at this point.—Jon

Looks like we are going to get our $1 per share gain on PHI today. We will go ahead and book that profit by the close today.

Your pivot point on GYI is $51.84, so look for the stock to hold that level and move higher. If it can not, we will exit that one.

We are looking for another advance today in VSEA shares, most likely will carry that one into Friday, then sell booking at least $1 profit per share.

BWS shares set up and rank a 9 out of possible 10 in our system. However, I have not put the trade alert out because of Options Exp on Friday, can move stocks either way and looks like some of the volume spikes are on the sell side.

If the stock is green 2 hours after the market is open, ok to take some shares down.—Jon

I am in no hurry to take money off the table. The headlines read, "Bernanke says inflation easing".

What Jon Anthony heard is,"Bernanke says Dow 13,000 not a problem". The question is no longer if, but when.--Jon

Looks like AMAT is throwing in the towel and sending a bunch of business to VSEA, of which VSEA was taking anyway.

The bears have been trying to raid this stock and push it lower ever since that fantastic earnings report in January. At times it seemed like the bears might get the upper hand, as the % of shares shorted continued to climb.

However, each attempt by the bears to take this stock down has been met and defended around the $40 level.

With today’s news, VSEA bulls might have enough ammo to move shares past $49.

That’s assuming Big Ben doesn’t spook the bulls tomorrow. Score one for VSEA bulls for now!—Jon

North Korea makes a deal to disarm. President Bush says no war with Iran in the making.
Bernanke unlikely to say anything to spook the market. Oil and Gold both moving down.

At least for the next 2 days, I got my bull cap on.—Jon

--From News Report
"The deal
Eddie Bauer emerged from bankruptcy in June 2005. Two months later, it launched a new product line. Unfortunately, the results were disappointing, with continued declines in same-store sales. The company was a mess. Same-store sales had fallen for about six years; EBITDA was expected to continue to decline in 2006 and 2007; and there were vacancies in critical areas, including the chief operating officer, chief marketing officer, and a variety of VP positions. Because of the deterioration, the company was limited by its loan covenants, unable to increase expenditures on marketing and capital improvements. So in May 2006, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) made a presentation to the company on various options. At that time, the board agreed to explore the sale of the company. Goldman talked with 96 prospective buyers, of whom 45 expressed interest. After further winnowing, there were six preliminary bids (including four from private equity firms), which ranged from $4.41 to $13.00 per share. By late September, only one investment group -- Golden Gate and Sun Capital -- submitted a final bid. The price: $7.75. With negotiation, the investment group increased the bid to $8.25 and finally to $9.25."

This week, sharesholders rejected the take over price. The stock currently trades less than book value. I think the shares are worth between $12.50-$15 a share.
The company has positive sales growth, has a world known brand name, has emerged from bankruptcy, and I think could be another JC Penney, offering big upside to those who are patient.

To answer your question, yes I am a trader 99% of the time, but I love turn around plays like JC Penny, General Motors, Toys R Us. This Bob Olstein type investing can really make you nice long term profits.

If this stock would pull back to $7-8 range, I would be a buyer. The risk of course is they could go to zero, but if they get the turnaround right, could rival ANF or JCP shares.--Jon

When you are looking for trades to play, good traders start with what they don’t want to own. If you have been in the game a while, you realize it is more important where your money is not, verses where it is. So I first look at every sector for a reason as to why I don’t want to play in that area.

For example, this morning my list looks something like this:

It is important to look at things first from the stand point of what you don’t want to own, then start working on what you are willing to own.--Jon

Costco didn’t come through with good numbers, so we will avoid retail for now. HMIN is a very volatile stock, but should be able to hold $45 and retake $46 early this morning. If the stock can not do that, we will go ahead and exit.

ITRI is a new break-out, but again, needs to hold $60. If stock test $60 and doesn’t find any buyers, we will exit.—Jon

HMIN has been drifting lower all day after taking out $46. However it has done it on low volume, and the up moves from $45 was on strong volume.

I continue to like this stock to move higher, but look for real trouble around $47.—Jon

HMIN has made a text book bounce off the 10 day moving average of $44, and has now taken out the 5 day high of $46.

There is a heavy short position above $47 and my math formula shows we could have a problem in that area again. Looks like green light until then.

ITRI is just begging to explode past $60, which has proven to be a hard resistance line in the past. My math points to us taking out $60 this time, and pushing higher. Earnings next Tuesday will for sure help in that effort.

We cancelled our GYMB order this morning amid the surprise early drop. I saw Childrens Place on the down momentum screen this morning, so must be some news out there, but I don’t know what it is. However, big money is coming for these retailers right now, and in our system, today’s action makes GYMB even a bigger buy set up for tomorrow.

So be looking for the trade alert in the morning as we will try to get long GYMB again.—Jon

Soon to be completed is the password protected members only area for Trademechanic Trade Specialist.

These are the things that we will have for you so far:

What I would like is for you to email me at jon@trademechanic.com to let me know, what you would like to see, so I can submit that to the web folks.

We want to provide you with every tool you need to be successful.—Jon

Two weeks ago, I alerted everyone to shares of TRI, which an analyst had said would be purchased that week. I pointed out that the analyst would not have said for sure, unless they knew for sure. I put the likely buy out target price between $49 and $54 a share.

So when the buy out happened today, why didn’t we make any money?

The answer is a lack of a proper game plan on my part. This was the easiest trade we will ever be handed.

However, because I don’t like to stick around very long, and the buyout didn’t happen right away, we missed it.

Most buyouts or mergers are announced on Mondays. From now on, our playbook will be to buy on the close Friday, then sell Monday if the buyout doesn’t happen. We will repeat the pattern until the take over comes in.

We missed an easy 6 points because I didn’t game it right, My Bad.—Jon

Worked out just right that the Fed didn’t say anything to upset the stock market on Wednesday, just before President Bush made a surprise appearance on the NYSE on Thursday. The market charging higher sure made a lot better photo-op for the President.

To say the market timing indicators I watch are overbought is an understatement. Going forward until the pullback happens, we need to trade stocks with true bullish support, lowest beta possible, and highest short interest.

Please don’t misunderstand, I am not bearish in anyway. But its my job to make sure we don’t buy a GOOG on earnings pop at $513, just because everyone is putting $600 price targets on it, then watch it take us down 25%.

Sectors I am looking at are Software staffing companies, Oil, Retail-Supermarkets, Machinery, Semi Conductor MFG, and Super Bowl plays, jewelry, flowers, flat panel TVS.—Jon

We used pop fly rule this morning to exit our positions. Holding over the Philippines play, but otherwise we will remain in cash into the weekend.

I stand by my statement that the Fed needed to take some air out of this market. I think they made a mistake and it could very well show itself starting tomorrow.

After the close YRCW and AMZN failed to deliver. Of course you already know GOOG disappointed the street.

Jobs numbers in the morning are likely to be strong, which could be just enough to get traders heading for the exits before the weekend.

We will stay in cash with our gains, and reset for next week. Thanks for trading with us.—Jon