The above chart comes from Vector Vest Market Timing timing model. The chart itself is a composite of all 8000 stocks tracked and their relative timing. The important thing to look at is the up/down trend lines I have layed out on the chart. These indicate the dates the Vector Timing Model confirmed an up or downtrend. As you can see, as of today, the Model has confirmed an uptrend after almost 6 months of a confirmed downtrend.

Now, this is great news. It basically means for now, professional money runners will still talk a big short game, but know that the easier money will be made on the long side. The question is, how long?

I have taught prior about counter trends vs trend reversals. A counter trend is a temporary change of direction, before resuming back into the prior trend. A trend reversal, is going the other way for good. Is this confirmed uptrend, and counter trend in the bear campaign, or a trend reversal? The market will make you "feel good" in this trend. Will make you "feel positive" in this trend. We have taught here at Trademechanic that you must take away all feelings in order to trade for a living. Feelings, emotions, are not part of a professional traders arsenal. They are a cancer, and ultimatly a destroyer of wealth. So, Jon, what is the playbook?

For that we have to once again consult with Father Time. Remember, you are never going to be trading in a market, that hasnt already been traded over the last 100 years. Nothing is new in the stock market, history repeats. Now, we all agree we are in a Bear market. So we have to look at all bear markets over the last 100 years in order to get our playbook.

"If we go back and look at the trading for the past one hundred years it is clear that when the index has a large decline in a short period of time as our 19% decline would qualify, the market will need to consolidate that large decline with a rally or sideways movement even if there is a bear trend. Those time periods for rally or consolidation, if the trend is down, are very consistent through out history at 34, 45, and 60 and 90 calendar days."--Bill M.

What Bill is saying is counter bear trends have specific calander day periods that they last. Now we dont yet know if we are in a counter bear move, or trend reversal. But at Trademechanic we trade what we do know, not what we dont know. What we do know is, if we count from the Jan low, we have already taking out the time frames of 30, 45, and 60 calander days which would have been March 24th. So our next stop, 90 calander days, puts us at April 22nd, give or take. Given history, I am comfortable predicting this up move will continue for the rest of this month. Should we move deep into May, and the rally is still on, we may be lookin at a trend reversal. The time frame for counter trend usually doesnt go past 100 days. However, this 1st leg down, has taken longer then normal. We wont know until we get there, so for now, lets play the forcast as it stands.

Up trend is confirmed, bulls are clear for aggressive trading until end of April.--Jon