The low was a classic big gap to new lows and recover to exhaust the short term move down. The day wasn’t impressive since in didn’t have huge volume and couldn’t hold the gains. But the “FOLLOW THROUGH” the next day was very good and indicates a low of some magnitude. I was worried because the last move up was an 11day struggle and was weak. But the move down also started to struggle and became weak when each time it broke to new lows the index would immediately bounce back. The index has showed a wide range day that closed on the high and may need a day or two to consolidate that large move. But this rally should test the February high quickly by the 28th or there is something wrong with the move up.

The consensus numbers were as extreme as at the October 2002 low so there is evidence to expect a low along with this pattern of trending. The low came in on 150 calendar days from high, 90 to 99 days from high (a normal time period for a thrust down in a bear trend) and 45 calendar days and 135 points down from high. All indicating a possible low of some consequence. Now the big question is how far and for how long will it rally, minimum in time out to April 8th we’ll discuss those probabilities next week.--Bill M