Last week I though we could see a rally into the 8th of March provided it could stay out of the congestion at 1369. That didn’t occur and the index collapsed into Tuesday. So the rally never appeared. The move up on Wednesday was a weak rally and now with yesterday’s move down there is a one day counter trend in place which does indicate the possibly of a capitulating or panicking trend down. Because the index did not get back above the previous high and has set in a lower high with a SPACE between the last low and the rally high the odds favor the current leg down is still intact and will like go to marginally below the exhaustion low. And that will complete the first leg down in this bear trend. A rally will follow of 60 or 90 calendar days but will be a counter trend rally. Prior to my seeing the rally that didn’t exists the forecast was for a marginally higher low or marginally lower low. Then a major counter trend rally followed by a resumption of the down trend. I thought the 34 day cycle for high on the 26th of February would only bring in a consolidation of the move up and not a reversal. So I’m not very confident I have the time vibration understood at this juncture. This is a fast move down following a sideways pattern and because of the capitulation style of trend it will need to exhausts into the low and should be obvious. Prices could be 1254 to 1260 or 1232 to 1238. It did close on the low and many times that is a temporary exhaustion but with the last rally at 11 days, as you can see, the weakest rally during the entire decline there could be another panic down to marginally below the January low. Consensus is down to levels for a low but is not precision timing. Bill M.